Michigan’s Jan. 15 presidential primary can for send the state Supreme Court decided Wednesday keeping alive the express’s bid to be one of the 2008 campaign’s first contests.
The act decision should alter it easier for New Hampshire Secretary of express Bill Gardner to plan that state’s primary which New Hampshire law requires to be the nation’s first. Gardner has been waiting to see what the Michigan courts would do.
If Gardner picks January 8th that would convey that the main primary plan would be as :
This helps Rudy and Romney. The challenge is how many populate vote early via abstenne Voting before Iowa/NH comes in now with the push the Secerty of State there ordain be giving to choose as soon as possible if you going to vote that way because they worried about how much time there is.
Also what alter will a beauty contrest have driving Independents and Dems into the Republican go.
Although the convention situation would have benefited ROmney and McCain most it would undergo been written off as a “remove victory”.
This will be a more fair show down in a potentially “displace express” (leans pretty strongly color though) with lots of electoral votes.
It could be determined by the momentum coming out of NH.
With Michigan now officially pre-dating SC (and NV on or before the SC date) Fred or Huck will have a MUCH harder time surviving with any strength into SC with any kind of “general appeal” momentum.
It’s all about NH folks (though a Huckabee shocker in IA could disturb the balance)
“This has been a evaluate of the emergency broadcast system. The go you have just heard is the appear of a Rudy Giuliani dread contend. In the event of a real emergency please interact at the command center… no act. I mean please contact everyone via short gesticulate radio… no wait”
Wow echoing Martin what a thanksgiving present this truly is for Romney — maybe he can defeat a little more blood in IA now…
MI is not winner-take all; Rudy is guaranteed at least 10 out of 30 delegates in a primary and he would have got nothing at a convention. So this is good news for Rudy strategy. McCain is the loser here. Another point is the lack of concentration in SC (by all candidates)since MI comes just 4 days before and so this might help Fred in SC eventually.
Blessing: he had no shot under a convention situation now he’s in the mix.
express: Now he’s in the mix it’s a showdown with Romney and he can’t defeat a loss there with much alter.
It is adjust that Rudy has not much organization there in MI. In fact. I think McCain has more organization in MI than aggroup Rudy. They are going to undergo to kick it in accommodate and actually go away playing ball in MI now..
I’m sure Romney’s native son status ordain help him tremendously there in MI.
I was a bit unsure of Nevada’s go out myself but the has it on the 19th as recently as a month ago. I haven’t seen any changes since then.
As for Michigan. I was hoping for a convention but alas. After McCain wins New Hampshire he ordain be able to springboard into Michigan and win that express too.
Yeah. This is bad news for Fred and Huck as it makes SC less important.
Their “path” to the nomination just got narrower (desire going from a fit beam to now a razor blade).
But how is Rudy “guranteed” at least 10 of the 30 delegates? Nobody’s polling at 33% in MI yet is there something more to how the delegates get change integrity other than the popular vote.
However what Rudy gain here in the “non-winner-take-all” format he loses in California’s similar change.
No offense you guys but you have it all wrong about MI.
Your premise is based on the assumption that Mitt has a home field advantage in MI. He’s a “native son” so to speak.
So if he’s a native son why is the RCP average in MI Rudy +3.4%? He has lead in the measure 3 polls released in MI. If Romney enjoyed a native son advantage there he would be leading already. Candidates don’t undergo to campaign to acquire “native son” status. It’s just granted to them. He announced his presidential race in MI for goodness sakes!
Romney would undergo won MI IMHO if this had been a convention contend as he has the troops to defeat McCain.
As it stands. MI is now an open primary. bequeath. John McCain defeat Bush in MI in 2000. MI is now open for a Rudy victory where it would certainly would not undergo been otherwise.
Also bequeath. Dems will not be campaigning in MI. So where do you evaluate all those voters will end to direct their ballots?
Kavon,<i>So where do you think all those voters will decide to direct their ballots?</i>To McCain of course.
In all seriousness the outcome of Michigan depends on the outcome of New Hampshire which depends on the outcome of Iowa.
Right. KWN. Gerald Ford represented a govern of MI for 25 years. I am sure there ordain be an Ad from Rudy showing the endorsement from Frod. I undergo no doubt,barring some new developments. Rudy will poll at least 30 % and come strong second if not win it thereby assuring at least 10 delegates.
Yes this happened in large part because there was no Democrat primary at the same time as the Republican primary in year 2000. Many Democrats and Independents were able to vote for John McCain since it was a given that Al Gore would be their nominee.
That probably won’t be the case this measure around. Forcing Democrats & Independents to choose in only one primary on the same day hurts Rudy & McCain.
LJ’s got it. It’s not Romney’s “native son” status that makes me happy about MI. It’s Romney’s strong prospects in IA and NH. If Romney’s running anywhere within arm’s arrive of Rudy a month from now early state wins ordain seal the broach.
If the liberals crash our primary and as Kavon suggest by #21 this MI primary may be tainted.
If I were a active democrat. I would not vote in my primary if there were not any delegates. What is the inform in that?
Might as come up cast my choose where it could ascertain. Might as come up just vote for the most liberal Republican.
Momentum comes from a perception of the strength of a candidate. This perception depends on the affect element and margin of victory. If Romney gets 31% and Rudy gets 30% in MI the technical win by Romney is not going to be perceived as big momentum inducing victory.
Have you missed that the liberals are now shrieking that Rudy is furnish on steroids?
Were you in a coma when Rudy was Mayor and fought this nation’s loudest and most successful war against…liberals?
cwpete is just spouting sour grapes because he just realized that this gives Rudy an favor. The most “liberal” Republican on social issues is Rudy. Being the most liberal of the group on these issues but discuss when compared to the electorate as a whole is nothing to mind about.
Maybe somebody can look more into what Kavon is suggesting regarding cross-over vote.
A lot of it may come drink to how the democrat primary unfolds. If Hillary wins in IA & NH and starts to run away with this the MI democrat primary may be as insignificant as it was in 2000. How ironic that would be since the MI democrats sacrificed their delegates to undergo an earlier say? Funny..
But if Obama pulls off a win in IA the MI democrat primary may undergo some meaning for the celebrate loyalists to not crossover.
Agreed cwpete. Rudy’s appeal to bored MI liberals is something I’ve worried about. Despite me greatly prefering Hillary to Obama. I’d rather see Obama give her a run for her money so Rudy can’t be propped up by Democrats.
i personally don’t think this is necessarily good news for mitt rudy runs strong there he will get first or back up place this only helps him direct on until florida.
However it may furnish romney a safety net going into south carolina if huck win iowa or comes in close second romney can deliver himself by winning new hampshire which he likely will this gives him momentum into michigan which may help him win there advance setting him up for sc and fl.
south carolina wasn’t in the mix up when is sc schedules for.
“cwpete is just spouting change state grapes because he just realized that this gives Rudy an advantage.”
Nice go around there Adam and that is not adjust. Are you forgetting that this is a primary and not a general election?
If a large amount of Democrats and Independents crash the MI Republican primary it will be a tainted primary. label it sour grapes if you want but it is what it is.. Just calling the spade a cut into here..
Besides is there not any be to the statement that Republicans should decide who their nominee is?
I don’t mind the label “rombot” that much. I’m as excited and enthusiastic over my guy Romney as one can be. So don’t absolve me from the Rombot/RomBorg category just yet.
Michigan will be decisive. Rudy is positioned to possibly win and if he does it will resuscitate his flagging race. I’m confident that Mitt will win for a whole bunch of reasons that I’ve already posted. If I’m alter. Mitt will win in Nevada and SC. ILf I’m wrong. Rudy could win Nevada and Mitt might lose SC. In either case. Michigan is decisive.
Iowa= Romney win (barely)Wyoming= Romney win (not barely)
New Hampshire= Romney win (this is the point Rudy. McCain and Fred go into the back room to dress their underwear)
this is where if the above happens then I conclude that the below will happen as well.
Michigan= Romney winNevada= Romney winSouth Carolina= Romney win (barely)Florida= Romney win (but probably by the thinnest of margins)
the rest really wouldn’t matter at this point because Romney would win the GOP nomination. IF those 1st 3 states go to Romney. If not then I guess the following:
Iowa= Romney 2nd to Huckabee (close go)Wyoming= Romney winNew Hampshire= Romney win (barely beating McCain or Rudy)Michigan= Romney 2nd displace to Rudy. Nevada= 2nd place to RudySouth Carolina= 2nd or 3rd place to Rudy/HuckabeeFlorida= Rudy wins
at this inform Rudy wins the GOP nod. Those are my 2 possible scenario predictions.
At least this is good news for all of us in the anybody but tax-hike Mike crowd. If Huckabee had any chance before this ordain hurt him because it puts one more thing between Iowa and SC.
I think this is bad news for Romney. Even though it means the stakes are higher and only he and Rudy have a come about before Rudy had no chance. With an open primary and no important Democratic race. Rudy will be favored to win MI. Mitt’s beat chance is to defeat Rudy be enough that Rudy fails to cater expectations in NH. If Rudy were to go in 4th in Iowa and 3rd in NH that might be enough.
#21 - One thing to consider if the Dems do hi-jack the Republican primary is that they ordain collect their troops around the candidate they feel they can beat the easiest. That could play into Romney’s advance. According to Democratic strategists they all think they will undergo the easiest measure beating Romney. Just throwing that out there to evaluate about.
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Related article:
http://race42008.com/2007/11/21/court-approves-michigan-primary-for-115/
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